Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Jul 24, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 24 16:24:57 UTC 2021 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
SPC AC 241624
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021
Valid 241630Z – 251200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN…
Severe thunderstorms with wind damage, isolated large hail, and a
tornado or two are expected from northern Illinois into Lower
Michigan this afternoon and evening.
A well-defined shortwave trough over WI/Upper Mi will track rapidly
eastward today across Lower MI. A moist and unstable air mass is in
place over this region, along with relatively strong vertical shear.
Thunderstorms (including a supercell or two) are expected to develop
by mid-afternoon and track across the region, posing a risk of
damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Please refer to MCD
#1339 for further details.
By mid-late afternoon, strong instability is expected to develop
along the trailing cold front from southwest Lower MI into northern
IL/IN. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along this
axis, although models vary significantly regarding coverage and
intensity. Those storms that do form will pose a risk of damaging
wind gusts through the early evening.
Similar to yesterday, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect
much of northern AZ and southern NV. A moist boundary layer coupled
with strong heating through early afternoon will help to yield
MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Low-level shear is weak, but 25
knot mid-level winds will help organize westward-moving cold pools
and result in the potential for gusty winds in some areas, along
with hail in the higher elevations.
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