SPC Jul 25, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jul 25, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 25 00:40:07 UTC 2021 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 250040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Jul 24 2021

Valid 250100Z – 251200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN…

…SUMMARY…
A few severe thunderstorms with wind damage, isolated large hail,
and perhaps a tornado remain possible from portions of northern
Illinois into southeast Lower Michigan/northwest Ohio this evening.

…Midwest/Lower Great Lakes…

Substantial mid-level drying is spreading south across the upper
Great Lakes region as northwesterly flow deepens/strengthens across
WI/MI with upper trough passage. Deep convection has organized ahead
of this feature along a corridor from southeast lower MI-northern
IN-northern IL-IA/MO border. While a few supercells are embedded
with this activity, a broken squall line has matured and is
advancing southeast at roughly 25kt. This activity will exit watches
#390/391 soon and may not weaken for several hours as temperatures
remain in the 80s with modest instability immediately downstream.
For these reasons will extend the SLGT risk another 30-40 miles
south of its current position to allow for more organized/severe to
continue through 03-04z.

..Darrow.. 07/25/2021

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