Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Oct 24, 2021 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 24 00:47:25 UTC 2021 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
SPC AC 240047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Valid 240100Z – 241200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY…
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across
portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region.
…Northeast KS/Southeast NE/Far Southwest IA/Northern MO…
Recent surface analysis places a low near DDC, with a warm front
extending east-northeastward from this low across southern KS.
Additionally, area VAD profiles and SPC mesoanalysis continue to
show increasing low-level flow throughout the warm sector to the
south of this warm front. This low-level flow is expected to
continue strengthening as the surface low slowly moves
northeastward. Persistent warm-air advection along this frontal zone
will promote the development of elevated thunderstorms in an arc
from the eastern KS/NE border vicinity eastward across northern MO.
Mid-level lapse rates (sampled well by the 00Z TOP sounding) are
expected to steep enough to support moderate buoyancy and robust
persistent updrafts. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and modest
hodograph curvature within the storm inflow layer will support the
potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing
occasional large hail tonight.
…Far East-Central TX Panhandle/Far Western OK…
Lone supercell in Wheeler and Collingsworth Counties in the far
east-central TX Panhandle may persist for the hour or so before
nocturnal stabilization leads to weakening. Until then, isolated
hail and/or an isolated damaging wind gust may occur.
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