SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL5

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
West Central Minnesota
Southern North Dakota
Eastern South Dakota

* Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 610 PM
until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY…Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds
will move east-northeast across the watch area this evening.
Isolated significant severe gusts in excess of 75 mph will also be
possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 90 miles north northeast
of Aberdeen SD to 15 miles south of Mitchell SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 414…

AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25035.

…Bunting

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 415 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 292310Z – 300600Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
90NNE ABR/ABERDEEN SD/ – 15S MHE/MITCHELL SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /35W FAR – 55W FSD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

LAT…LON 46649601 43549643 43549963 46649938

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.

Watch 415 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.TornadoesProbability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Low ( 65 knots

Mod (60%)

HailProbability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/WindProbability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.