SPC Aug 19, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Aug 19, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 19 00:57:22 UTC 2022 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 190057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2022

Valid 190100Z – 191200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe hail and strong gusts may persist this evening from
eastern Nebraska into western and northern Iowa.

…Eastern NE into IA…
Storms that produced significant hail earlier today from northeast
into south-central NE have diminished rapidly with the loss of
heating, and as they approach a drier air mass closer to the KS
border. As such, the Slight Risk has been removed, but isolated
severe hail may occur for an hour or two longer.

Meanwhile, a line of storms producing 20-30 kt outflow continues to
surge east across southeast MN, trailing west/southwest across the
border into IA. Given the established cold pool, these storms may
persist for a few more hours, and isolated damaging gusts cannot be
ruled out as the boundary layer gradually cools. Cells over western
IA, currently ahead of the outflow as of 01Z, may yet produce hail.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1695.

..Jewell.. 08/19/2022

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