Economics – USFedNgin

November 20, 2025

OFR Releases 2025 Annual Report to Congress

Source: United States Treasury

Headline: OFR Releases 2025 Annual Report to Congress

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August 1, 2025

Personal Income and Outlays, June 2025

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal income increased $71.4 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in June, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $61.0 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $69.9 billion (0.3 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $69.5 billion in June. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in June and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.

The increase in current-dollar personal income in June primarily reflected increases in government social benefits to persons and in compensation.

The $69.9 billion increase in current-dollar PCE reflected increases of $40.1 billion in spending on services and $29.9 billion in spending on goods.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for June increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for June increased 2.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.

Personal Income and Related Measures [Percent change from May to June]
Current-dollar personal income	0.3
Current-dollar disposable personal income	0.3
Real disposable personal income	0.0
Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE)	0.3
Real PCE	0.1
PCE price index	0.3
PCE price index, excluding food and energy	0.3

For definitions, statistical conventions, updates to PIO, and more, visit “Additional Information.”

Next release: August 29, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025

Technical Notes

Changes in Personal Income and Outlays for June

The increase in personal income in June primarily reflected increases in government social benefits to persons and in compensation.

The increase in government social benefits to persons was led by Social Security payments, based on data from the Social Security Administration and the Monthly Treasury Statement.
The increase in compensation reflected increases of $10.9 billion in government wages and salaries, $10.8 billion in supplements (mainly employer contributions for employee pension and insurance funds), and $6.3 billion in private wages and salaries, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Wages and salaries in goods-producing industries increased $4.5 billion. Wages and salaries in services‑producing industries increased $1.9 billion.

Revisions to Personal Income

Estimates have been updated for April and May. Revisions to compensation reflect updated BLS CES data. Within personal income receipts on assets, personal dividend income was revised up, reflecting an updated sample of dividends paid by publicly traded companies. Within government social benefits, Medicaid was revised up, reflecting Monthly Treasury Statement data.

May 1, 2025

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2025

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $102.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $134.5 billion (0.7 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $136.6 billion in March. Personal saving was $872.3 billion in March and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.9 percent.

The increase in current-dollar personal income in March primarily reflected increases in compensation and proprietors’ income.

The $134.5 billion increase in current-dollar PCE in March reflected increases of $54.5 billion in spending for goods and $79.9 billion in spending for services.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for March decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for March increased 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago.

Personal Income and Related Measures [Percent change from Feb. to Mar.]
Current-dollar personal income	0.5
Current-dollar disposable personal income	0.5
Real disposable personal income	0.5
Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE)	0.7
Real PCE	0.7
PCE price index	0.0
PCE price index, excluding food and energy	0.0

For definitions, statistical conventions, updates to PIO, and more, visit “Additional Information.”

Next release: May 30, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025

Technical Notes

Changes in Personal Income and Outlays for March

The increase in personal income in March reflected an increase in compensation and proprietors’ income.

The increase in compensation was led by private wages and salaries, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES). Wages and salaries in services-producing industries increased $46.4 billion. Wages and salaries in goods-producing industries increased $11.8 billion.
The increase in proprietors’ income was led by farm proprietors’ income, primarily reflecting payments from the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program as part of the American Relief Act.
In March, some federal government employees opted to accept a deferred resignation program offer. Federal workers who accepted the deferred resignation offer are counted as employed in the BLS source data. Because these employees will continue to receive compensation until they officially separate from the federal government, BEA made no adjustment as a result of this program.

Revisions to Personal Income

Estimates have been updated for January and February, reflecting updated BLS CES data. Wages and salaries increased 0.2 percent in January and 0.4 percent in February, both the same as previously estimated.

March 22, 2025

Office of Financial Research Extends to June 30, 2025 the Compliance Date for Rule on Non-centrally Cleared Bilateral Repurchase Agreement Data Collection

Source: United States Treasury

Headline: Office of Financial Research Extends to June 30, 2025 the Compliance Date for Rule on Non-centrally Cleared Bilateral Repurchase Agreement Data Collection

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November 21, 2024

OFR Releases 2024 Annual Report to Congress

Source: United States Treasury

Headline: OFR Releases 2024 Annual Report to Congress

Contact: OFR Public Affairs

WASHINGTON – Today the Office of Financial Research (OFR) published its 2024 Annual Report to Congress, which concluded that most vulnerabilities that can impair U.S. financial stability are largely unchanged since last year. The report covers risks to financial stability for the 12 months through September 30, 2024.

“By delivering our in-depth analysis of financial-stability risks and providing high-quality monitoring tools and data, we endeavor to support the Financial Stability Oversight Council and its member agencies, policymakers, and others in mitigating vulnerabilities in our financial system,” said James Martin, Acting Director of the OFR. “The OFR continues to monitor and analyze risks to financial stability and remain agile to identify and examine emerging threats as they arise now and in the future.”

The OFR’s 2024 Annual Report to Congress is organized around the four major components of the financial system—asset markets, businesses and households, financial institutions, and money markets—and provides an analysis of the vulnerabilities that can impair the functioning of the system. Because technology is critical to the operation of each major component of the financial system, the 2024 Annual Report to Congress discusses technology vulnerabilities throughout the report. The report also identifies and discusses key data gaps related to uninsured deposits, private credit, and dealer margin practices.

In its 2024 Annual Report to Congress, the OFR highlighted its key findings regarding financial system vulnerabilities. Overall, asset market vulnerabilities remain elevated. Vulnerabilities associated with credit to businesses and households remain moderate. At some nonbank financial institutions, vulnerabilities are growing and can amplify risk at other financial institutions. In money markets, vulnerabilities are moderate.

The 2024 Annual Report to Congress also discussed several significant OFR accomplishments. The OFR published its Final Rule on non-centrally cleared bilateral repurchase (NCCBR) agreement transactions (or repo). The Final Rule establishes an ongoing data collection of certain NCCBR transactions in the U.S. repo market and requires daily reporting by certain brokers, dealers, and other financial companies with large exposures to NCCBR. In addition, the OFR launched a new Hedge Fund Monitor that makes aggregated data on hedge fund activities from public and private sources accessible to the public through an easy-to-use online tool and also via an application programming interface (API). The Hedge Fund Monitor informs the public and policymakers about significant parts of the U.S. financial system. Further, the OFR updated its Bank Systemic Risk Monitor to provide enhanced details for analyzing a bank holding company’s leverage.

Read the report.

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August 7, 2024

OFR Announces the 2024 PhD Symposium

Source: United States Treasury

Headline: OFR Announces the 2024 PhD Symposium

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August 1, 2024

OFR Unveils New Hedge Fund Monitor for Public Use

Source: United States Treasury

Headline: OFR Unveils New Hedge Fund Monitor for Public Use

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May 7, 2024

OFR Adopts Final Rule for Data Collection of Non-centrally Cleared Bilateral Transactions in the U.S. Repurchase Agreement Market

Source: United States Treasury

Headline: OFR Adopts Final Rule for Data Collection of Non-centrally Cleared Bilateral Transactions in the U.S. Repurchase Agreement Market

Published: May 6, 2024

Contact: OFR Public Affairs

The Office of Financial Research (OFR) today adopted a Final Rule to improve transparency within the U.S. repurchase agreement (repo) market by establishing a data collection for non-centrally cleared bilateral transactions.

This data collection requires daily reporting to the OFR by U.S. covered reporters with large exposures to the non-centrally cleared bilateral repo (NCCBR) market. The collected data will be used to support the work of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (Council), its member agencies, and the OFR to identify and monitor risks to financial stability.

“After receiving recommendations from the Council and others to obtain better data on the NCCBR market—currently the largest of the four repo market segments—the OFR set out to establish a permanent NCCBR data collection. The OFR consulted with the Council, held extensive discussions with market participants, successfully completed a pilot data collection, and carefully considered public comments on our proposal,” said James Martin, Acting Director of the OFR. “The OFR’s permanent data collection will shine a spotlight into this opaque corner of the financial market, provide high-quality data on NCCBR transactions, and remove a significant blind spot for financial regulators.”

The Final Rule will become effective 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. It establishes two categories of financial companies subject to reporting, a timeline for submission of data depending on the category of covered reporter, and a number of specific data elements required to be reported.

For the specific requirements applicable to covered reporters, along with instructions and guidance relating to submission mechanics, visit our NCCBR page.

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The OFR helps promote financial stability by looking across the financial system to measure and analyze risks, perform essential research, and collect and standardize financial data, principally to support the Financial Stability Oversight Council and its member agencies. In addition, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act requires the OFR to analyze threats to the financial stability of the United States each year and provide a report to Congress with its key findings. For more information, visit us at https://www.financialresearch.gov/.

April 27, 2024

Personal Income and Outlays, March 2024

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March. Disposable personal income (DPI)-personal income less personal current taxes-increased $104.0 billion (0.5 percent). Personal outlays-the sum of personal consumption expenditures (PCE), personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments-increased $172.1 billion (0.9 percent) and consumer spending increased $160.9 billion (0.8 percent). Personal saving was $671.0 billion and the personal saving rate-personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income-was 3.2 percent in March.

April 26, 2024

Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on May 30, 2024.

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the increase primarily reflected increases in health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the decrease primarily reflected decreases in motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods. Within residential fixed investment, the increase was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment mainly reflected an increase in intellectual property products. The increase in state and local government spending reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. The decrease in inventory investment primarily reflected decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing. Within imports, the increase reflected increases in both goods and services.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent at an annual rate, or $327.5 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $28.28 trillion. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 5.1 percent, or $346.9 billion (tables 1 and 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent.

Personal Income

Current-dollar personal income increased $407.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $230.2 billion in the fourth quarter. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts (table 8).

Disposable personal income increased $226.2 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $190.4 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts were partly offset by an increase in personal current taxes, which are a subtraction in the calculation of DPI. Real disposable personal income increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent.

Personal saving was $755.7 billion in the first quarter, compared with $815.5 billion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note and a detailed “Key Source Data and Assumptions” file posted with the release. The second estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2024. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the “Additional Information” section that follows.

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Next release, May 30, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate)
First Quarter 2024

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