EIA increases global oil production forecast after the opening of the Strait of Hormuz

Source: US Energy Information Administration

U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
WASHINGTON DC 20585

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
July 7, 2026

The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), increasing its expectations for global oil production.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased following the June 18 memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran to end a months-long conflict and reopen the strait. EIA now expects worldwide crude oil production and trade flows to rebound to near pre-conflict levels by year’s end, with most previously shut in production returning online by the first quarter of 2027. EIA forecasts that more oil production globally will lower crude oil and gasoline prices, with the U.S. average retail gasoline prices averaging about $3.60 per gallon (gal) in the second half of this year, down from $4.48/gal in May.

Key takeaways from the July STEO are below.

U.S. energy market indicators 2025 2026 2027
Brent crude oil spot price (dollars per barrel) $69 $82 $65
Retail gasoline price (dollars per gallon) $3.10 $3.64 $3.09
U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) 13.6 13.8 14.0
Natural gas price at Henry Hub (dollars per million British thermal units) $3.53 $3.67 $3.49
U.S. liquefied natural gas gross exports (billion cubic feet per day) 15 17 19
Shares of U.S. electricity generation 
Natural gas 40% 40% 40%
Coal 17% 15% 15%
Nuclear 18% 18% 18%
Conventional hydropower 6% 6% 6%
Wind 11% 11% 12%
Solar 7% 8% 9%
Other energy sources 1% 1% 1%
U.S. GDP (percentage change) 2.1% 2.1% 2.3%
U.S. CO2 emissions (billion metric tons) 4.9 4.8 4.8
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2026
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report.
  • Global oil markets. Following the June 18 MOU between the United States and Iran to end the conflict and increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, EIA increased its forecast for global oil production and now expects crude oil output and trade flows to return to near pre-conflict levels by year end, with most shut in production restored by early 2027.
  • Crude oil price forecast. Rising global oil supply and slowing inventory withdrawals have pushed oil prices lower. The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $85 per barrel (b) in June, down $22/b from May and $32/b from the April 2026 peak. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $74/b in the third quarter of 2026, $27/b lower than last month’s forecast. EIA expects continued oil inventory builds over the next year will push crude oil prices lower, with Brent falling to an average of $65/b in 2027.
  • U.S. gasoline prices. Lower crude oil prices will contribute to a drop in U.S. retail gasoline prices, with EIA’s forecast showing 3Q26 averages declining to $3.80/gal from $4.21/gal in 2Q26. Although tight gasoline inventories keep refiners’ margins elevated in the near term, we expect rebuilding stocks and the end of the summer demand season to narrow those margins and push prices even lower to about $3.40/gal in 4Q26, with the annual average falling below $3.10/gal in 2027.
  • Natural gas prices. Record U.S. natural gas production will help meet rising demand and push prices lower, with Henry Hub spot prices averaging close to $3.70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2026 before easing below $3.50/MMBtu in 2027.

The full July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.

The product described in this press release was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analysis, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government. The views in the product and this press release therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy or other federal agencies.

EIA Program Contact: Tim Hess, STEO@eia.gov
EIA Press Contact: EIAMedia@eia.gov

Early Release of 2025 Power Plant Operations Report Data

Source: US Energy Information Administration

The survey Form EIA-923 collects detailed electric power data — monthly and annually — on electricity generation, fuel consumption, fossil fuel stocks, and receipts at the power plant and prime mover level. Specific survey information provided:

  • Schedule 2 – fuel receipts and costs
  • Schedules 3A & 5A – generator data including generation, fuel consumption and stocks
  • Schedule 4 – fossil fuel stocks
  • Schedules 6 & 7 – non-utility source and disposition of electricity
  • Schedules 8A-F – environmental data

Monthly data (M) -approximately 3,034 plants from the monthly survey
Annual final data – approximately 3,034 monthly plants + 9,528 plants from the annual survey

The EIA-906, EIA-920, EIA-923 and predecessor forms provide monthly and annual data on generation and fuel consumption at the power plant and prime mover level. A subset of plants, steam-electric plants 10 MW and above, also provides boiler level and generator level data. Data for utility plants are available from 1970, and for nonutility plants from 1999. Beginning with January 2004 data collection, the EIA-920 was used to collect data from the combined heat and power plant (cogeneration) segment of the nonutility sector; also as of 2004, nonutilities filed the annual data for nonutility source and disposition of electricity. Beginning in 2007, environmental data was collected on Schedules 8A – 8F of the Form 923 and includes by-product disposition, financial information, NOX control operations, cooling system operations and FGP and FGD unit operations. Beginning in 2008, the EIA-923 superseded the EIA-906, EIA-920, FERC 423, and the EIA-423. Schedule 2 of the EIA-923 collects the plant level fuel receipts and cost data previously collected on the FERC and EIA Forms 423. Fuel receipts and costs data prior to 2008.

Power plant data prior to 2001 are separate files for utility and nonutility plants. For 2001 data and subsequent years, the data are Excel spreadsheet files that include data for all plants and make other changes to the presentation of the data.

The Form EIA 906/920 data for 2004-2006 were updated. A new method of allocating fuel consumption between electric power generation and useful thermal output (UTO) was implemented for 2004-2008. This new methodology proportionally distributes a combined heat and power (CHP) plant’s losses between the two output products (electric power and UTO). In the historical data, UTO was consistently assumed to be 80 percent efficient and all other losses at the plant were allocated to electric power. This change results in the fuel for electric power to be lower, while the fuel for UTO is higher than the prior set of data as both are given the same efficiency. This results in the appearance of an increase in efficiency of production of electric power between 2003 and 2004. The same methodology is applied to final 2007 and preliminary 2008 data. More information about the methodology can be found in the Appendix C, Technical Notes, to the Electric Power Monthly

Quarterly Coal Distribution Report—First Quarter 2026

Source: US Energy Information Administration

The Quarterly Coal Distribution Report provides detailed U.S. domestic coal distribution data by coal-origin state, coal-destination state, mode of transportation, and consuming sector. All quarterly data are preliminary and will be updated in the Annual Coal Distribution Report.

Highlights for the first quarter of 2026

  • Total domestic coal distribution was an estimated 100.5 million short tons (MMst) in the first quarter of 2026. This value is 6.2% (6.7 MMst) lower than the previous quarter and 2.9% (2.8 MMst) higher than the first quarter of 2025.
  • Wyoming was the leading coal-origin state, accounting for about 52.5 MMst of shipments delivered to 24 states. Texas was the leading coal-destination state, receiving about 11.4 MMst of domestic coal.
  • An estimated 73.3% of total coal shipments were sent by railroad, 10.5% were sent by river, and 7.6% were sent by truck. Tramway and conveyor deliveries, which are traditionally associated with minemouth power plants, accounted for about 8.6% of total coal shipments.
  • Electric utilities and independent power producers received about 91.9% of the total coal shipments.

Quarterly Coal Report—First Quarter 2026

Source: US Energy Information Administration

First-quarter coal production data were unavailable at the time of publication. We will update the Quarterly Coal Report when the data become available.

The Quarterly Coal Report provides detailed quarterly data on U.S. coal production, exports, imports, receipts, prices, consumption, quality, and stocks. The report also provides data on U.S. coke production, consumption, stocks, imports, and exports. All data for 2024 and previous years are final. All data for 2025 and 2026 are preliminary.

Highlights for the first quarter of 2026

  • U.S. coal exports for the first quarter of 2026 (23.7 MMst) increased 0.9% from the fourth quarter of 2025. The average price of U.S. coal exports during the first quarter of 2026 was $114.22 per short ton.
  • The United States continued to import coal primarily from Colombia (68.5%) and Canada (17.5%). U.S. coal imports in the first quarter of 2026 totaled 0.7 MMst. The average price of U.S. coal imports during the first quarter of 2026 was $134.74 per short ton.
  • Steam coal exports totaled 10.4 MMst (1.9% higher than the fourth quarter of 2025). Metallurgical coal exports totaled 13.3 MMst (0.2% higher than the fourth quarter of 2025).
  • U.S. coal consumption totaled 105 MMst in the first quarter of 2026, which was 2.9% lower than the 108.2 MMst reported in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 11.4% lower than the 118.5 MMst reported in the first quarter of 2025. The electric power sector accounted for about 91.7% of the total U.S. coal consumption in the first quarter of 2026.
  • In the first quarter of 2026, coal stocks grew to 137.7 MMst from 136.2 MMst at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025 (a 1.1% increase). Stocks in the electric power sector increased to 110.9 MMst from 109.5 MMst at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025.

The 250-year history of U.S. energy consumption

Source: US Energy Information Administration

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In-brief analysis

Jun 30, 2026


Over the 250-year history of our nation, energy consumption has evolved from wood use in the 18th and 19th centuries to today’s use of modern renewable, hydrocarbon, and nuclear technology. In 2025, total energy used in the United States was 96 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), up 2% from 2024, but below 2007’s record 99 quads. Petroleum was the most-used energy source last year, followed closely by natural gas. Use of renewable, coal, and nuclear energy each made up about 9% of total energy use.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 29, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Capacity Report
Note: Data reflect refinery capacity as of January 1 of the indicated year.

U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity, the primary measure of refinery capacity, totaled 18.2 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) on January 1, 2026—down over 250,000 b/cd (about 1%) compared with January 1, 2025—according to our latest annual Refinery Capacity Report.

Read More ›

In-brief analysis

Jun 26, 2026


An increase in electricity generation from small-scale solar in New York has decreased the midday demand for metered electricity, amid overall declining load in the state. The trend is particularly notable in the early spring (March and April), when solar generation has an outsized impact because demand is relatively low and conditions for solar generation are favorable.

Read More ›

In-brief analysis

Jun 24, 2026


For the week ending June 19, 2026, U.S. refineries processed 17.1 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil, down 81,000 b/d from the previous week, and they operated at 96.1% capacity utilization. Gasoline production averaged 9.5 million b/d, and distillate production increased to 5.2 million b/d.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 23, 2026


On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that it was leaving OPEC, effective on May 1. OPEC was formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, with the stated objective to “coordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries.” OPEC is best known for its effect on global crude oil prices.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 18, 2026


The Permian region’s marketed natural gas production grew from 17.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021 to 27.6 Bcf/d in 2025, a 60% increase, according to data from our latest Short Term Energy Outlook. Over the same period, crude oil production grew by 39%, going from 4.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 6.6 million b/d. The higher growth in natural gas production is the result of increasing gas-oil ratios (GOR).

Read More ›

In-brief analysis

Jun 16, 2026


In the first five months of 2026, utility-scale solar generation surpassed natural gas generation in CAISO. Solar electricity generation in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) over the first five months of 2026 increased 21% compared with the same period in 2024, and natural gas generation decreased by 60%, data from our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor shows.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 12, 2026

U.S. generating capacity for onshore wind farms


The SunZia Wind Project, the largest wind farm in the United States, is slated to begin commercial operations this month. The wind farm, located in New Mexico, has a total net summer generating capacity of 3,650 megawatts (MW) and is composed of 916 wind turbines. SunZia’s capacity is more than three times larger than the next two largest wind farms, Alta Wind in Southern California (1,098 MW) and Great Prairie in northern Texas (1,027 MW). The SunZia Wind Project works with a high voltage transmission line to deliver the wind power generated to Arizona and California.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 10, 2026

Data source: Bloomberg L.P. and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: RIN=renewable identification number; real prices are adjusted to May 2026 dollars.


Compliance credits for biomass-based diesel and ethanol have doubled in value since the start of this year. The credits, known as renewable identification numbers (RINs), have increased in price, mostly because of higher U.S. biofuel blending targets. The combination of high RIN prices and rising motor gasoline and diesel fuel prices has created an especially favorable market for producing and blending biofuels.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 8, 2026


Weekly estimates suggest U.S. jet fuel production has increased to record highs in response to elevated jet fuel prices after the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28. Higher crude oil prices and supply concerns, particularly in Europe and Asia, which previously imported much of their jet fuel supply from the Persian Gulf, have driven up jet fuel prices. Much of the increased U.S. jet fuel production is being exported, as domestic inventories remain above average.

Read More ›

In-brief analysis

Jun 5, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics and estimates, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Note: IAEA data are used to identify capacity additions in 2025 and 2026, which we then add to our International Energy Statistics estimate for 2024 to get the total capacities for 2025 and 2026. All values are in reference unit power.

From 2016 to 2024, China’s nuclear generation capacity increased 76% (24 GW), based on our International Energy Statistics (IES) data. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), China added an additional 1.1 GW of nuclear power capacity in 2025 and 2.2 GW in 2026 (through May). China is continuing to build out its nuclear generating capacity and has 36 reactors under construction, accounting for more than 49% of total world nuclear construction, according to PRIS.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 3, 2026


Underground working natural gas storage capacity in the Lower 48 states increased slightly in 2025, according to our latest data, with growth concentrated in the South Central and Mountain regions. Underground natural gas storage provides a source of energy when demand increases, balancing U.S. energy needs. We calculate natural gas storage capacity in two ways: demonstrated peak capacity and working gas design capacity. Both increased in 2025.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 2, 2026

Data source: Natural Gas Intelligence
Note: Prices are adjusted for inflation based on April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. The SoCal Border Average represents a daily natural gas price index tracking spot prices at key delivery points into the Southern California Gas system.


Monthly average natural gas spot prices in California reached record lows in the first five months of 2026, dropping to values last recorded in the nationwide low-price market of 2024. Record lows were recorded in Northern California’s PG&E Citygate and Southern California’s SoCal Border Average; SoCal Citygate prices fell to near-record lows but remained higher than some 2024 prices. Several factors contribute to California’s low prices, including above-average inventories and decreasing in-state demand for natural gas-fired electricity.

Read More ›

In-brief analysis

May 28, 2026


We forecast natural gas consumption by the U.S. electric power sector this summer will remain near recent highs and set a record next summer in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Despite a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand this summer, we expect natural gas-fired electricity generation to be similar to last summer, primarily because of forecast increased generation from renewables. In the May STEO, we forecast natural gas consumed by the U.S. electric power sector will average 43.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the summer (June–September), the same as in the summer of 2025, and 4% above the five-year summer average (2021–2025). We forecast natural gas consumption for power generation will increase 6% (2.4 Bcf/d) during the summer of 2027 to 46.1 Bcf/d, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 by 3%.

Read More ›

In-brief analysis

May 27, 2026


Total energy exports from the United States reached a record 31 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2025, 2% more than the previous record set in 2024. U.S. energy imports were 21 quads, down 5% from 2024. Taken together, net trade—total imports less total exports—reached 11 quads of net exports in 2025, a record and 20% more net exports than the previous record set in 2024.

Read More ›

U.S. refining capacity decreased during 2025

Source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

June 29, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Capacity Report
Note: Data reflect refinery capacity as of January 1 of the indicated year.

U.S. operable atmospheric distillation capacity, the primary measure of refinery capacity, totaled 18.2 million barrels per calendar day (b/cd) on January 1, 2026—down over 250,000 b/cd (about 1%) compared with January 1, 2025—according to our latest annual Refinery Capacity Report.

We publish two measures of refinery capacity in the report: barrels per calendar day and barrels per stream day. Calendar day capacity represents the operator’s estimate of the input volume that a distillation unit can process in a 24-hour period under usual operating conditions, factoring in both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance. The calendar day capacity reported by companies may differ slightly from other published figures because of differences in estimation methods.

Stream day capacity reflects the maximum input that a distillation facility can process within a 24-hour period when running at full capacity with an optimal crude oil and product slate and with no allowance for downtime. Stream day capacity is typically about 6% higher than calendar day capacity.

This year’s Refinery Capacity Report includes 130 operable refineries, two fewer than in 2025. LyondellBasell ended refining operations at its 263,776-b/cd refinery in Houston in March 2025, and Phillips 66 ceased operations at its 138,700-b/cd refinery in Los Angeles in October 2025. Combined, the closure of the two facilities represents a reduction in operable U.S. refinery capacity of about 400,000 b/d.

The loss of capacity from the two facilities is partly offset by marginal capacity increases at other, existing refineries.

The Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery reflects a relatively small share of total U.S. refinery capacity, but its closure marks a 5% reduction in refinery capacity on the West Coast (PADD 5). Valero’s 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery is still included in the report, as it was still operational as of January 1, 2026. However, that refinery has also ceased refining operations, and its capacity was removed from our monthly capacity estimates as of March 2026. Relatively little pipeline capacity exists to supply petroleum products from large refinery hubs on the U.S. Gulf Coast to the West Coast, which means reductions in refinery capacity on the West Coast can have a larger impact on fuel availability in the region compared with other regions in the United States.

Although the LyondellBasell Houston refinery had greater distillation capacity, its closure represented a reduction of only 3% of regional refinery capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3)—a region where more fuel is produced than consumed. Offset by marginal capacity increases at other U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, regional capacity decreased by less than 2% in 2025.

In 2026, the three-largest refiners in the United States—Marathon, Valero, and ExxonMobil—all reported calendar day capacity increases of less than 1% compared with 2025. These changes likely stem from small-scale process improvements, rather than major capacity expansions. Phillips 66, the fourth-largest refiner in the United States decreased its overall capacity in this year’s report, due to the closure of the Los Angeles refinery. Marginal capacity increases led Chevron to overtake PBF Energy as the fifth-largest refiner in the United States as of this year’s report.

Motiva’s Port Arthur refinery remains the largest U.S. refinery on a barrels-per-calendar-day basis, at 656,000 b/cd, while Marathon’s Galveston Bay refinery remains the largest in the United States on a stream-day basis at 678,000 barrels per stream day.


The 2026 Refinery Capacity Report captures U.S. refining capacity changes in effect as of January 1, 2026. Changes in refinery capacity made since January 1 are not reflected.

Principal contributors: Kevin Hack, Carolyn Hronis

State Energy Data System: Complete set of state-level estimates through 2024

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Released: June 26, 2026  |  Next release: June 25, 2027

Comprehensive state-level estimates of energy consumption, prices, expenditures, production, indicators, and CO2 emissions by source and sector.

Estimates for 2025 and revisions for previous years by energy source are released on the SEDS updates page starting in October 2026.

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Metered electricity demand in the New York ISO falls midday because of small-scale solar

Source: US Energy Information Administration

In-brief analysis

June 26, 2026


An increase in electricity generation from small-scale solar in New York has decreased the midday demand for metered electricity, amid overall declining load in the state. The trend is particularly notable in the early spring (March and April), when solar generation has an outsized impact because demand is relatively low and conditions for solar generation are favorable.

Rooftop and other photovoltaic (PV) systems with less than 1 megawatt (MW) of generating capacity are not typically metered by a utility. As this type of solar generating capacity has increased, midday demand on utilities has decreased, followed by a steeper increase in demand in the late afternoon and evening.

Total solar capacity in New York (small-scale and utility-scale) has increased by 5.6 gigawatts (GW) since 2018. Roughly half of the 5.6 GW of PV capacity additions have been small-scale solar. Because generation from small-scale solar is generally not metered by utilities, it is not distinguishable as a source of electricity generation on our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor; however, we assume it reduces electricity demand.


Electricity generally peaks twice a day, driven by consumption patterns in the residential sector. The first peak is in the morning when people wake up, and the second is in the evening when people return home. Historically, metered electricity demand would increase during both time periods. However, the addition of small-scale solar has altered the hourly rate of change of electricity demand in New York. Small-scale solar generation rapidly increases in the morning, resulting in less demand for metered electricity during that time of day than in years past. In the evening, generation from small scale solar decreases, resulting a sharper increase in metered electricity demand. Because utility grid operators generally dispatch solar generators first, they must ramp up or down other generation types to meet and balance electricity demand.

In March and April of 2018, hourly electricity demand in New York increased by an average of 850 MW during the three-hour period between 8:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. In 2026, electricity demand during that period decreased by an average a of 923 MW. Conversely, in March and April of 2018, early evening electricity demand increased by an average of 681 MW between 4:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. By 2026, electricity demand increased by an average of 2,221 MW during those three hours.


Principal contributor: Alex Felhofer

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have decreased in June

Source: US Energy Information Administration

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In-brief analysis

Jun 23, 2026


On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced that it was leaving OPEC, effective on May 1. OPEC was formed in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela, with the stated objective to “coordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries.” OPEC is best known for its effect on global crude oil prices.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 18, 2026


The Permian region’s marketed natural gas production grew from 17.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021 to 27.6 Bcf/d in 2025, a 60% increase, according to data from our latest Short Term Energy Outlook. Over the same period, crude oil production grew by 39%, going from 4.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 6.6 million b/d. The higher growth in natural gas production is the result of increasing gas-oil ratios (GOR).

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In-brief analysis

Jun 16, 2026


In the first five months of 2026, utility-scale solar generation surpassed natural gas generation in CAISO. Solar electricity generation in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) over the first five months of 2026 increased 21% compared with the same period in 2024, and natural gas generation decreased by 60%, data from our Hourly Electric Grid Monitor shows.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 12, 2026

U.S. generating capacity for onshore wind farms


The SunZia Wind Project, the largest wind farm in the United States, is slated to begin commercial operations this month. The wind farm, located in New Mexico, has a total net summer generating capacity of 3,650 megawatts (MW) and is composed of 916 wind turbines. SunZia’s capacity is more than three times larger than the next two largest wind farms, Alta Wind in Southern California (1,098 MW) and Great Prairie in northern Texas (1,027 MW). The SunZia Wind Project works with a high voltage transmission line to deliver the wind power generated to Arizona and California.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 10, 2026

Data source: Bloomberg L.P. and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: RIN=renewable identification number; real prices are adjusted to May 2026 dollars.


Compliance credits for biomass-based diesel and ethanol have doubled in value since the start of this year. The credits, known as renewable identification numbers (RINs), have increased in price, mostly because of higher U.S. biofuel blending targets. The combination of high RIN prices and rising motor gasoline and diesel fuel prices has created an especially favorable market for producing and blending biofuels.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 8, 2026


Weekly estimates suggest U.S. jet fuel production has increased to record highs in response to elevated jet fuel prices after the Strait of Hormuz closed on February 28. Higher crude oil prices and supply concerns, particularly in Europe and Asia, which previously imported much of their jet fuel supply from the Persian Gulf, have driven up jet fuel prices. Much of the increased U.S. jet fuel production is being exported, as domestic inventories remain above average.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 5, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics and estimates, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Note: IAEA data are used to identify capacity additions in 2025 and 2026, which we then add to our International Energy Statistics estimate for 2024 to get the total capacities for 2025 and 2026. All values are in reference unit power.

From 2016 to 2024, China’s nuclear generation capacity increased 76% (24 GW), based on our International Energy Statistics (IES) data. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS), China added an additional 1.1 GW of nuclear power capacity in 2025 and 2.2 GW in 2026 (through May). China is continuing to build out its nuclear generating capacity and has 36 reactors under construction, accounting for more than 49% of total world nuclear construction, according to PRIS.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 3, 2026


Underground working natural gas storage capacity in the Lower 48 states increased slightly in 2025, according to our latest data, with growth concentrated in the South Central and Mountain regions. Underground natural gas storage provides a source of energy when demand increases, balancing U.S. energy needs. We calculate natural gas storage capacity in two ways: demonstrated peak capacity and working gas design capacity. Both increased in 2025.

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In-brief analysis

Jun 2, 2026

Data source: Natural Gas Intelligence
Note: Prices are adjusted for inflation based on April 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. The SoCal Border Average represents a daily natural gas price index tracking spot prices at key delivery points into the Southern California Gas system.


Monthly average natural gas spot prices in California reached record lows in the first five months of 2026, dropping to values last recorded in the nationwide low-price market of 2024. Record lows were recorded in Northern California’s PG&E Citygate and Southern California’s SoCal Border Average; SoCal Citygate prices fell to near-record lows but remained higher than some 2024 prices. Several factors contribute to California’s low prices, including above-average inventories and decreasing in-state demand for natural gas-fired electricity.

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In-brief analysis

May 28, 2026


We forecast natural gas consumption by the U.S. electric power sector this summer will remain near recent highs and set a record next summer in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Despite a 2% increase in overall U.S. electricity demand this summer, we expect natural gas-fired electricity generation to be similar to last summer, primarily because of forecast increased generation from renewables. In the May STEO, we forecast natural gas consumed by the U.S. electric power sector will average 43.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the summer (June–September), the same as in the summer of 2025, and 4% above the five-year summer average (2021–2025). We forecast natural gas consumption for power generation will increase 6% (2.4 Bcf/d) during the summer of 2027 to 46.1 Bcf/d, surpassing the previous record set in 2024 by 3%.

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In-brief analysis

May 27, 2026


Total energy exports from the United States reached a record 31 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in 2025, 2% more than the previous record set in 2024. U.S. energy imports were 21 quads, down 5% from 2024. Taken together, net trade—total imports less total exports—reached 11 quads of net exports in 2025, a record and 20% more net exports than the previous record set in 2024.

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In-brief analysis

May 26, 2026


Developers plan to bring approximately 44.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of new pipeline capacity online in the United States in 2026 and 2027, according to our latest Natural Gas Pipeline Projects Tracker. Approximately 70% (31.6 Bcf/d) of this new capacity is already under construction. More than 66% (29.7 Bcf/d) of the capacity additions originate in Texas. Louisiana is second with 19% (8.4 Bcf/d) of total capacity additions.

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In-brief analysis

May 22, 2026


Against the backdrop of a nationwide increase in gasoline prices, regional dynamics including local supply and demand conditions, state fuel specifications, and state taxes influence the different prices drivers see at the pump.

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In-brief analysis

May 20, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on data from S&P Global Market Intelligence
Note: The specifics of the calculation methodology are detailed in our 2017 Today in Energy article, with minor adjustments to heat rates and heat contents used. The heat rate used for the dark spread was 10,579 British thermal units per kilowatthour (Btu/kWh) while the heat rate for the spark spread was 8,365 Btu/kWh.

In the first four months of 2026, electricity, natural gas, and coal prices suggested continued favorable economics for coal generation in MISO. The dark spread of coal, the difference between the fuel costs for coal-fired generation and the wholesale electricity price, in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region outpaced a similar measure of revenue relative to fuel costs for natural gas-fired generators known as the spark spread.

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In-brief analysis

May 19, 2026

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) Counterfactual Baseline and High Electricity Demand cases

In the Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026), our long-term outlook, we project electricity consumed by data center servers will increase across the commercial building stock, increasing more in standalone data centers than in all other data center rooms combined. By 2050, server consumption alone reaches between 446 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) and 818 billion BkWh. The highest end of the range reflects faster growth in server power draw and installed stock in our High Electricity Demand case. Standalone data centers are represented in the other buildings category, where we project servers will consume 581 BkWh of electricity in 2050 in our High Electricity Demand case. Across all cases, servers alone accounted for an estimated 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025. Data center server electricity use grows to 22%–33% of commercial building electricity use by 2050 across our cases.

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2025 Domestic Uranium Production Report

Source: US Energy Information Administration

Mining, production, shipments, and sales

U.S. uranium mines produced 1,388,000 pounds of triuranium octoxide (U3O8), or uranium concentrate, in 2025, a significant increase from the 677,000 pounds produced in 2024. The production of U3O8 is the first step in the nuclear fuel production process, preceding the conversion of U3O8 into uranium hexafluoride (UF6) to enable uranium enrichment, then fuel pellet fabrication, and finally fuel assembly fabrication.

Drilling and exploration

Exploration drilling during 2025 included 1,824 holes with total footage of 1,016,000 feet, up considerably from the 1,324 holes with total footage of 613,000 feet drilled in 2024. Development drilling totaled 3,708 holes with total footage of 1,302,000 feet, up from 2024 development drilling of 2,462 holes and 1,260,000 feet. Exploration and development drilling activities in 2025 were at the highest levels since 2013 for number of holes drilled and for total footage drilled.

Facility status (mills, heap leach plants, and in-situ recovery plants)

At the end of 2025, the Shootaring Canyon Uranium Mill in Utah and the Sweetwater Uranium Project in Wyoming were on standby with a total capacity of 3,750 short tons of material per day. In Utah, the White Mesa Mill restarted production. In Wyoming, the Sheep Mountain heap leach facility reached a partial permitting and licensed stage.

At the end of 2025, in-situ recovery (ISR) facilities Alta Mesa Project, Lost Creek Project, the Smith Ranch-Highland Operation, Ross Central Processing Project, and Willow Creek Project were operating with a combined capacity of 13.3 million pounds U3O8 per year down from the industry-wide ISR capacity of 14.1 million pounds in 2024. Five in-situ recovery plants were on standby as of the end of 2025 with a combined annual production capacity of 8.8 million pounds U3O8. Seven in-situ recovery plants were planned for three states—South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming—with a combined annual production capacity of 10.5 million pounds U3O8.

Employment and expenditures

Total employment in the U.S. uranium production industry was 711 full-time person-years (one person-year is equal to full-time employment for one person) in 2025, a 41% increase from the 506 full-time person-years in 2024 and the highest employment total since 2014.

Expenditures for land, exploration, drilling, production, and reclamation totaled $234.7 million in 2025, up from $160.0 million in 2024 and the highest total expenditures since 2014.