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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Current Convective Watches (View What is a Watch? clip)Updated: Mon Jul 27 05:03:05 UTC 2026 No watches are currently valid
Archived Convective ProductsTo view convective products for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 20040529 for May 29, 2004). Data available since January 1, 2004.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 1754
Mesoscale Discussion 1754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected…Eastern Upper MI into northern Lower MI
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 270439Z – 270645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to severe storms may increase in coverage
overnight.
DISCUSSION…A small storm cluster has recently intensified across
southeast Lake Superior and adjacent Upper MI. This convection is
potentially being aided by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough
moving southeastward across the region. There may be some tendency
for storms to increase in coverage overnight and move
south-southeastward along the primary buoyancy gradient. Relatively
steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and effective shear
of 40+ kt will continue to conditionally support storm organization.
Isolated hail may occur with the strongest cells, while any notable
upscale growth could result in an increasing wind-damage threat.
Uncertainty remains high regarding storm evolution overnight, and
short-term guidance continues to struggle with handling ongoing
convection. While the severe threat may remain relatively isolated
in this region, watch issuance is possible if observational trends
support an increasing coverage of severe threat.
..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DTX…APX…GRR…MQT…
LAT…LON 46758598 46888488 46428405 45428356 44138360 43878380
43878492 44008589 44268637 44988676 45278678 45608683
46518621 46758598
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE…1.00-1.75 IN
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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Mesoscale Discussion 1753
Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Areas affected…Southwest/southern middle TN into northern AL and
far northeast MS
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517…
Valid 270406Z – 270530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind will remain possible into the early
morning hours.
DISCUSSION…A long-lived storm cluster continues to move southward
across parts of western/middle TN late this evening. Some weakening
has been noted over the last 1-2 hours, and a gradual weakening
trend is expected to continue, due to weak low-level flow and weaker
deep-layer flow/shear with southward extent. However, very rich
low-level moisture continues to support strong to extreme buoyancy,
with downstream MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. This buoyancy
may aid in occasional updraft intensification along the gust front,
and a continuation of at least an isolated damaging-wind threat into
the early overnight hours across northern AL and far northeast MS.
..Dean.. 07/27/2026
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…OHX…BMX…HUN…MEG…
LAT…LON 35858833 35718707 35468664 34648665 34188773 34358840
35058868 35448867 35858833
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…UP TO 60 MPH
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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 270102
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Valid 270100Z – 271200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the
upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into
Nebraska, mainly late this evening and tonight.
…Upper Midwest…
A very unstable environment remains in place across the region, with
the MPX, GRB, and DVN 00Z soundings sampling MLCAPE from 3100, 2900,
and 2800 J/kg, respectively. Surface observations show mid to upper
70s dewpoints on the warm side of the warm front extending from
north-central MN through northeast WI/far western Upper MI. A
thunderstorm has matured upstream of this corridor, with the
expectation it will remain strong to severe as it continues
southeastward. Modest low-level warm advection into this boundary
will also contribute to additional thunderstorms this evening and
overnight. Environmental conditions are still expected to support
large to very large hail early in the convective cycle while a more
cellular mode is likely. Thereafter, a trend towards bowing segments
capable of severe wind gusts is anticipated. A singular MCS could
eventually develop, with severe gusts possible as it moves southward
as well. Some gusts, both within the line segments and early in the
MCS lifecycle, could be significant (i.e. over 75 mph).
…TN Valley…
A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate south-southeast at
approximately 40 kts. The downstream airmass is very moist, with
numerous sites reporting dewpoints in the low 80s. This moisture is
contributing to extreme buoyancy, with the recent 00Z BNA sounding
sampling 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. This MCS is also oriented
perpendicular to the deep-layer vertical shear. All of these factors
will contribute to continued southward progression, with an
attendant risk for strong gusts likely extending into Middle TN this
evening.
…South-Central into Southeast SD into central NE…
Numerous attempts at deep convection along the weak surface trough
extending from south-central SD through central NE have failed thus
far. The window of opportunity for deep convection will likely
remain open for the next hour or two before building inhibition
associated with nocturnal cooling precludes mature convection. Until
that occurs, there remains a conditional risk for severe
thunderstorms capable of strong downdrafts and isolated large hail.
…Elsewhere…
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is possible across the Mid-Atlantic
over the next few hours as a shortwave trough progresses
southeastward across the region. Moderate vertical shear could
support updraft organization with deeper, more persistent
convection. Isolated damaging gusts and hail are possible with the
more organized storms. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible
across northern Wyoming and far southwest South Dakota as high-based
thunderstorms track northeastward across the region this evening.
Jackson Hole Wyoming reported a gust of 50 kt at 2353Z.
..Mosier.. 07/27/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
810 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 810 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY…A linear cluster of severe thunderstorms will move
southward into the Watch this evening. The primary hazard will be
severe gusts (60 to 70 mph) capable of wind damage with the stronger
downbursts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles northwest of Fort
Campbell KY to 110 miles south of Clarksville TN. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 516…
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
36035.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 517 SEVERE TSTM TN 270110Z – 270600Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5NW HOP/FORT CAMPBELL KY/ – 110S CKV/CLARKSVILLE TN/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /54NW BNA – 19N MSL/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 36035.
LAT…LON 36728664 35008654 35008830 36728845
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 517 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low ( 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low ( 2 inches
Low (
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Current Convective Watches (View What is a Watch? clip)Updated: Sun Jul 26 05:19:07 UTC 2026 No watches are currently valid
Archived Convective ProductsTo view convective products for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 20040529 for May 29, 2004). Data available since January 1, 2004.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Jul 26, 2026 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 26 01:00:02 UTC 2026 (Print Version | | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 260100
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
Valid 260100Z – 261200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
SD…SOUTHWEST MN…NORTHERN IA…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN MT…
…SUMMARY…
Severe gusts (potentially greater than 75 mph) remain possible this
evening from eastern South Dakota into northern Iowa and southwest
Minnesota. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts also remain
possible across parts of Montana.
…SD into southern MN/northern IA/far northeast NE…
A loosely organized storm cluster is moving across eastern SD this
evening. Additional intensification remains possible this evening,
as this cluster encounters extreme downstream buoyancy, with MLCAPE
of 4000-5000 J/kg within a very moist (dewpoints around 80 F)
environment. The ongoing cluster has produced measured gusts of
60-80 mph, so any notable intensification could lead to an increase
in potential for gusts in the 75-90 mph range. Isolated hail and
perhaps a tornado also remain possible through dusk with this
cluster. Increasing CINH with time and eastward extent should
eventually result in a weakening trend later tonight, though an
organized severe threat could eventually approach parts of southeast
MN/northeast IA into northwest IL overnight.
Farther northwest, a separate storm cluster is moving across
north-central SD, within a similarly favorable environment. In the
short term, this cluster may continue to move east-southeastward
along a surface boundary with a continued severe-wind threat.
Eventually, weakening buoyancy in the wake of the southeast SD
cluster will tend to result in a weakening trend with this cluster.
…Central/eastern Montana…
Strong to locally severe storms may persist through dusk across
parts of central/eastern MT, within a well-mixed environment that is
favorable for severe-wind potential. Increasing CINH will result in
an eventual weakening trend later tonight, though remnant outflows
may still produce strong to locally severe gusts as storms diminish.
…Southern AZ…
Widely scattered storms and increasing outflow may continue to
support strong to localized severe gusts within a very hot and
well-mixed environment across parts of southern AZ. Weak deep-layer
flow/shear should keep any remaining threat generally disorganized.
..Dean.. 07/26/2026
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
.html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…
* Primary threats include…
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this afternoon and
become severe with an initial threat for isolated large hail and
severe gusts. As additional storms form and cold pools coalesce, a
linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to organize in
central and eastern South Dakota by the early evening. A
severe-wind squall line with widespread severe gusts is forecast and
peak gusts 85 to 100 mph are likely.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Philip SD to 20 miles southeast of Brookings SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
…Smith
SEL3
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
1100 PM CDT.
…THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…
* Primary threats include…
Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 100
mph likely
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Thunderstorms are forecast to intensify this afternoon and
become severe with an initial threat for isolated large hail and
severe gusts. As additional storms form and cold pools coalesce, a
linear cluster of severe thunderstorms is expected to organize in
central and eastern South Dakota by the early evening. A
severe-wind squall line with widespread severe gusts is forecast and
peak gusts 85 to 100 mph are likely.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest
of Philip SD to 20 miles southeast of Brookings SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 85 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28040.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 513 SEVERE TSTM SD 252035Z – 260400Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
20WNW PHP/PHILIP SD/ – 20SE BKX/BROOKINGS SD/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /46ENE RAP – 29NNE FSD/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..85 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28040.
LAT…LON 45250197 45189654 43019654 43070197
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 513 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (10%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (80%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Current Convective Watches (View What is a Watch? clip)Updated: Sat Jul 25 06:04:05 UTC 2026 No watches are currently valid
Archived Convective ProductsTo view convective products for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 20040529 for May 29, 2004). Data available since January 1, 2004.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Current Mesoscale DiscussionsUpdated: Sat Jul 25 06:03:02 UTC 2026 No Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.
Notice: The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice.
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