Category: US Congressional Budget Office

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 1043 would require the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to convey approximately 3,400 acres of land at fair market value to La Paz County, Arizona, subject to valid existing rights, if the county requests the land.

In January 2025, BLM granted a 30-year right-of-way on that parcel of federal land in La Paz County to an energy developer and approved the construction of a solar energy project. Under the act, that land would be conveyed to the county. Based on information from BLM, CBO expects the county would request to purchase the land specified in the act. That sale and its effect on the approved solar energy project would, on net, increase direct spending.

The costs of the legislation, detailed in Table 1, fall within budget function 300 (natural resources and environment).

Land Conveyance

Based on typical time frames for federal land conveyances, CBO expects that the transfer would take about three years to complete. Proceeds from the land sale would be recorded in the budget as offsetting receipts, that is, as reductions in direct spending. Those receipts would be deposited in the Federal Land Disposal Account where they could be spent without further appropriation to purchase eligible land; thus, CBO estimates that the net effect on direct spending from conveying the land would be negligible because the proceeds would be spent shortly thereafter.

Additionally, La Paz County would be required to pay for all costs associated with the conveyance under H.R. 1043. However, CBO expects that some administrative costs incurred to update maps would not be reimbursed by the county. We estimate those costs would be insignificant; any related spending for such administrative expenses would be subject to the availability of appropriated funds.

Energy Right-of-Way

Using information from BLM, CBO estimates that the energy project will begin producing in 2027 and the right-of-way will generate an average of $4 million in receipts annually beginning in that year. Under current law, Arizona and La Paz County would receive one-quarter of those receipts each; the other half would be recorded in the budget as offsetting receipts (that is, as reductions in direct spending) and would not be available to spend.

Because the land conveyance would be subject to valid existing rights, the solar energy project would continue to move forward; however, La Paz County would receive the receipts from the right-of-way as the owner of the land with the right-of-way. On that basis, CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 1043 would increase net direct spending by $13 million over the 2026-2035 period.

The CBO staff contact for this estimate is Lilia Ledezma. The estimate was reviewed by H. Samuel Papenfuss, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates, $8 billion less than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2024. Revenues increased by an estimated $308 billion (or 6 percent); increases in collections of individual income taxes and customs duties were partially offset by a decline in corporate tax receipts. Outlays rose by an estimated $301 billion (or 4 percent). Outlays were higher in several areas, including the largest benefit programs and net interest on the public debt. 

The change in the deficit was influenced by the timing of outlays in fiscal year 2024, which were reduced because payments that were due on October 1, 2023, a Sunday, were shifted into fiscal year 2023 (they were made in September 2023). If not for those shifts, the 2025 deficit would have been $80 billion (or 4 percent) less than the shortfall in 2024. 

CBO’s estimate of the deficit for 2025 is slightly smaller than the shortfall CBO anticipated in the January 2025 baseline projections. Those projections were based on legislative and administrative actions through early December 2024; subsequent actions are included in the numbers in this report. CBO now estimates that, all told, revenues and outlays alike were slightly more than the totals projected in January. The current deficit estimate of $1.8 trillion is consistent with updated projections that CBO published last month. 

Early in the next calendar year, CBO will publish The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036. That report will provide CBO’s economic and budgetary projections for the 2026‑2036 period, and cover such topic areas as the 2025 reconciliation act, tariffs, and immigration. 

The House and Senate Committees on the Budget have instructed CBO to publish the Monthly Budget Review during the current lapse in federal appropriations because the report provides information that the Congress needs to carry out its Constitutional functions. Because of the lapse in funding, some data that CBO typically would use for its analysis were unavailable.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

Bill Summary

H.R. 3230 would change which federal financial regulators oversee financial institutions that have between $10 billion and $50 billion in total assets. Under current law, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) conducts examinations of and requires reporting from insured depository institutions and insured credit unions with total assets of more than $10 billion. Depending on the type of institution, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), or the Federal Reserve assesses compliance for financial institutions with assets below $10 billion. H.R. 3230 would raise that threshold from $10 billion to $50 billion.

The bill also would change certain asset thresholds under the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956; the Truth in Lending Act; and the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act.

Estimated Federal Cost

The estimated budgetary effect of H.R. 3230 is shown in Table 1. The costs of the legislation fall within budget function 370 (commerce and housing credit).

Basis of Estimate

CBO assumes that H.R. 3230 will be enacted by the end of 2025. Enacting the bill would shift some oversight responsibilities from the CFPB to the other financial regulators, which would decrease administrative costs for the CFPB and increase administrative costs for the FDIC, NCUA, OCC, and the Federal Reserve.

In general, CBO expects that the costs of undertaking these oversight activities would not differ much among agencies and that enacting H.R. 3230 would shift about $90 million in administrative costs over the 2026-2035 period from the CFPB to the other financial regulators.

However, the budgetary treatment of administrative costs differs among the affected agencies, and the 2025 reconciliation act lowered the amount that the CFPB may request and receive from the Federal Reserve to fund its operating costs. As a result, CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3230 would increase direct spending by $37 million, decrease revenues by $18 million, and increase the federal deficit by $55 million over the 2026-2035 period.

Direct Spending

CBO estimates that gross costs for the FDIC, OCC, and NCUA would increase by about $70 million over the 2026-2035 period to oversee additional financial institutions. However, the NCUA and OCC are authorized to collect fees from regulated institutions to cover administrative expenses. After accounting for those fees, CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3230 would increase net direct spending by $37 million over the 2026-2035 period.

Under current law, the CFPB is permanently authorized to spend amounts transferred from the combined earnings of the Federal Reserve in an amount necessary to carry out its responsibilities, subject to a statutory cap that was lowered by the 2025 reconciliation act. CBO expects that the CFPB will spend all the transferred funds up to its cap in each year over the 2026-2035 period.

CBO estimates that shifting oversight responsibilities to other federal regulators would reduce the CFPB’s administrative costs by about $90 million over the 2026-2035 period, but that reduction would be offset by increased spending on other required administrative activities, resulting in no net budgetary effect.

Revenues

Costs incurred by the Federal Reserve reduce remittances to the Treasury, which are recorded in the budget as revenues. CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3230 would increase costs for the Federal Reserve by $18 million over the 2026-2035 period to oversee additional financial institutions, and thus decrease revenues by the same amount.

Changes in costs for the Federal Reserve banks have historically resulted in changes to remittances during the same year. However, since fiscal year 2023, the central bank has recorded a deferred asset to account for accrued net losses from expenses in excess of income. As a result, remittances largely have been suspended. In CBO’s projections, remittances from the Federal Reserve will generally be suspended until 2030, and until they resume, most changes in costs incurred by the system will not be recorded as changes in remittances.

Pay-As-You-Go Considerations

The Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010 establishes budget-reporting and enforcement procedures for legislation affecting direct spending or revenues. The net changes in outlays and revenues that are subject to those pay-as-you-go procedures are shown in Table 1.

Increase in Long-Term Net Direct Spending and Deficits

CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3230 would not increase net direct spending by more than $2.5 billion in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2036.

CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 3230 would not increase on‑budget deficits by more than $5 billion in any of the four consecutive 10-year periods beginning in 2036.

Mandates

If the NCUA and OCC increase fees to offset the costs associated with implementing additional examinations required by the bill, H.R. 3230 would increase the cost of an existing mandate as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA) on private entities required to pay those fees. CBO estimates that the incremental cost of the mandate would be small and would fall well below the annual threshold for private-sector mandates established in UMRA ($206 million in 2025, adjusted annually for inflation).

H.R. 3230 contains no intergovernmental mandates as defined in UMRA.

Revenues: Nathaniel Frentz

Mandates: Lucy Marret

Estimate Reviewed By

Justin Humphrey
Chief, Finance, Housing, and Education Cost Estimates Unit

Joshua Shakin
Chief, Revenue Projections Unit

Kathleen FitzGerald
Chief, Public and Private Mandates Unit

H. Samuel Papenfuss 
Deputy Director of Budget Analysis

Phillip L. Swagel

Director, Congressional Budget Office

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 3123 would require the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to pay accrued pension benefits to a deceased veteran’s estate in cases where that veteran’s eligible survivor does not claim such benefits. The bill also would extend the reduction of VA pension payments for veterans and survivors who reside in Medicaid nursing homes. In total, enacting H.R. 3123 would reduce net direct spending by $3 million over the 2026-2035 period (see Table 1). The costs of the legislation fall within budget functions 550 (health) and 700 (veterans benefits and services).

Accrued Benefits. Section 2 would require VA to pay a deceased veteran’s accrued pension benefit to that veteran’s estate if no eligible survivor claims it. Under current law, pension benefits that have been awarded but not yet paid at the time of a veteran’s death are payable only to that veteran’s surviving spouse, children, or parents. If none of those survivors claim the pension within a year of the veteran’s death, the veteran’s estate or another individual can only receive reimbursement for funeral expenses. Using information from VA on the number of veterans who die before receiving their pension and the frequency with which eligible survivors claim those accrued benefits, CBO estimates that the department would pay accrued benefits to veterans’ estates about 20 times each year. From 2019-2024, accrued benefit payments have averaged about $3,000; thus, CBO estimates enacting section 2 would increase direct spending by $1 million over the 2026-2035 period.

Pensions and Medicaid. Under current law, VA reduces pension payments to veterans and survivors who reside in Medicaid nursing homes to $90 per month. That required reduction expires November 30, 2031. Section 3 would extend that reduction for one month, through December 31, 2031. CBO estimates that extending that requirement would reduce VA benefits by $10 million per month. As a result of that reduction in beneficiaries’ income, Medicaid would pay more of the cost of their care, increasing spending for that program by $6 million per month. Thus, enacting section 3 would reduce net direct spending by $4 million over the 2026-2035 period.

The CBO staff contacts for this estimate are David Rafferty and Logan Smith. The estimate was reviewed by Christina Hawley Anthony, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

S. 1533 would make changes to the laws that allow the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to enter into contracts with health care providers. The bill would require VA to develop a system for contracted health care providers to submit evidence to veterans’ disability claims files. In addition, the bill would require VA and the Government Accountability Office to conduct reviews and issue reports. The bill also would permanently extend VA’s authority to contract with providers to conduct disability examinations and expand the types of professionals with whom VA can contract.

Under current law, VA can contract with physician assistants, nurse practitioners, audiologists, and psychologists to provide disability examinations for veterans in any location in the United States, regardless of whether the providers are licensed to practice in that jurisdiction. That authority expires on January 5, 2026.

The costs of the legislation, detailed in Table 1, fall within budget function 700 (veterans benefits and services).

Direct Spending

Veterans’ disability compensation is funded through a mandatory appropriation. Thus, some of the bill’s requirements would affect mandatory spending. The largest effect, in CBO’s estimation, would be the requirement to build and maintain a system for submitting information to veterans’ claims files. The system would allow contracted health care providers to directly submit evidence that is introduced by veterans during their disability examinations. Using information from VA, CBO estimates that enacting that requirement would cost $50 million over the 2026-2035 period.

Additionally, the bill would renew an expired requirement for VA to report to the Congress on the effectiveness, timeliness, and thoroughness of the examinations provided by contracted health care providers. Under current law, VA may use mandatory appropriations to pay for such reports. Based on the costs of previous reports, CBO estimates that enacting that provision would increase direct spending by less than $500,000.

The bill would permanently extend VA’s authority to contract with providers and expand the types of eligible providers to include any licensed health care professional. Extending and expanding VA’s authority could change which providers perform exams, but it would not affect the number of veterans eligible to receive VA benefits. As a result, CBO estimates that enacting that provision would not affect direct spending for disability compensation benefits.

Spending Subject to Appropriation

The bill would require VA to conduct studies and report to the Congress about medical disability examinations performed by VA employees and contracted health care providers. The bill also would direct the Government Accountability Office to review VA’s methodology for two of those studies. Using information about the cost of similar activities, CBO estimates that implementing those provisions would cost $10 million over the 2026‑2035 period; such spending would be subject to the availability of appropriated funds.

Previous CBO Estimate

On August 8, 2025, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for H.R. 3951, the Rural Veterans’ Improved Access to Benefits Act of 2025, as ordered reported by the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs on July 23, 2025. Section 1 of S. 1533 is similar to section 2 of H.R. 3951: Both bills would extend and expand VA’s authority to contract with health care professionals to conduct medical disability exams. H.R. 3951 would not require VA to develop a system to transmit information to a veteran’s claim file. Thus, CBO estimated that the costs of H.R. 3951 would be less than those of S. 1533.

The CBO staff contacts for this estimate are David Rafferty and Logan Smith. The estimate was reviewed by Christina Hawley Anthony, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 4183 would authorize the appropriation of specific amounts each year totaling $212 million over the 2026-2029 period for the activities of the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC). The bill also would create additional administrative and reporting requirements for the FMC, and it would establish two advisory committees to assist the commission. In 2025, the Congress provided $40 million for the FMC.

CBO assumes that the bill will be enacted near the end of 2025 and that the specified amounts will be provided in each year. Based on historical spending patterns for the FMC, CBO estimates that implementing H.R. 4183 would cost $208 million over the 2026-2030 period and $4 million after 2030.

The costs of the legislation, detailed in Table 1, fall within budget function 400 (transportation).

The CBO staff contact for this estimate is Aaron Krupkin. The estimate was reviewed by H. Samuel Papenfuss, Deputy Director of Budget Analysis.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 5242 would repeal two laws that reduced criminal penalties for youth offenders in the District of Columbia. Because the bill would affect only the District of Columbia, CBO estimates that enacting the bill would have no cost to the federal government.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 5183 would amend the District of Columbia Home Rule Act to establish a uniform 60-day Congressional review period for all legislation, regulations, and executive actions of the District of Columbia; create a line-item veto during Congressional review; eliminate the ability of the Council of the District of Columbia to extend emergency laws; prohibit the council from withdrawing legislation from the Congressional review process; and prohibit the council from passing laws that are substantially similar to legislation disapproved by the Congress. The bill also would provide for expedited consideration of resolutions of disapproval within the House and the Senate. Based on the cost of similar activities, CBO estimates that the cost of implementing H.R. 5183 would be insignificant over the 2026-2030 period.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 5179 would amend the District of Columbia Home Rule Act by overturning the election of the current attorney general for the District of Columbia and authorizing the President to appoint a new attorney general. The current attorney general’s appointment would terminate on the date of enactment. Based on the cost of similar activities, CBO estimates that the cost of implementing H.R. 5179 would be insignificant over the 2026-2030 period.

Source: US Congressional Budget Office

H.R. 5214 would amend the Code of the District of Columbia to require mandatory pretrial detention for defendants charged with certain violent crimes and require mandatory cash bail or bail bonds for all defendants charged with other specified crimes. Because the bill would affect only the District of Columbia, CBO estimates that enacting the bill would have no cost to the federal government.