Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 10, 2026
Updated: Wed Jun 10 08:28:03 UTC 2026
.
D4
Sat, Jun 13, 2026 – Sun, Jun 14, 2026
D7
Tue, Jun 16, 2026 – Wed, Jun 17, 2026
D5
Sun, Jun 14, 2026 – Mon, Jun 15, 2026
D8
Wed, Jun 17, 2026 – Thu, Jun 18, 2026
D6
Mon, Jun 15, 2026 – Tue, Jun 16, 2026
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100826
SPC AC 100826
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Valid 131200Z – 181200Z
…DISCUSSION…
…Day 4/Saturday…
The models are in generally good agreement in depicting a prominent,
mid/upper-level low over Ontario with a secondary, weaker low or
short-wave trough across the northern Rockies. A belt of enhanced,
westerly winds in the mid levels will reside to the south of those
features from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. At the
surface, an area of low pressure is forecast across the central
Plains with an associated front extending northeast into the upper
Great Lakes.
A strongly unstable air mass is forecast ahead of the front across
portions of the mid/lower MO Valley into Ozark Plateau with
instability decreasing with northeastward extent into the upper
Great Lakes. The models indicate sufficiently strong deep-layer
shear across the frontal zone to support organized storm modes,
including supercells. Highest confidence in greater storm coverage
and an associated severe-weather threat remains centered on the
mid/lower MO Valleys. Severe-weather probabilities may need to be
extended into the upper Great Lakes in subsequent outlooks.
…Day 5/Sunday…
A number of the deterministic models indicate a short-wave trough
and associated jet streak moving through the Great Lakes into
Northeast, within the base of the Ontario upper low. Farther west,
the northern Rockies short-wave trough will advance toward the
central Rockies. At the surface, a cold front associated with the
former disturbance mentioned above will progress through the
Northeast and OH Valley, with the western extension of the boundary
stalling across the southern Plains.
The models indicate a narrow axis of modest instability developing
by afternoon ahead of the front from the northern New England to the
upper OH Valley, where the strongest vertical shear is forecast.
Some severe weather appears possible in those areas; however, the
limited extent of the warm sector leads to uncertainty in the
coverage and duration of any threat.
Greater instability and a wider warm sector are forecast with
southwestward extent from the OH River and TN Valley into southern
Plains. Generally weak vertical shear is forecast across the frontal
zone, which should limit the degree of storm organization. A
possible exception is across the southern and central High Plains,
where an easterly low-level wind component will boost deep-layer
shear to some extent. Model trends will be monitored for the
possible inclusion of severe-weather probabilities in that area.
…Day 6/Monday…
The deterministic models are in reasonably good agreement in
amplifying the aforementioned short-wave trough over the central
Plains with an associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending
through the OH Valley into Northeast. At the surface, there is some
signal that an area of low pressure could develop along a front
across the southern Plains into Ozark Plateau. Some severe-weather
threat appears possible in that area, as well as along the front
that is expected to stretch east through the TN Valley into the
Carolinas. Predictability in the specific details are too low to
include an area.
…Days 7-8/Tuesday and Wednesday…
The ensemble mean solutions are in relatively good agreement in
suggesting the central Plains short-wave trough will become absorbed
into broader-scale trough amplification east of the MS Valley. At
the surface, it appears that a frontal wave will move from the TN
Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, while a trailing cold front
advances into the Gulf Coast states. While areas of severe weather
are possible during this time frame, predictability in their
location is low.
..Mead.. 06/10/2026
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